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Every election season, we hear the same message from the DA. A vote for a small party will weaken the DA and make it easier for the ANC to take power in the Western Cape. How true is this statement?

The South African electoral system is one of proportional representation. This means that seats are allocated on a percentage basis. Unlike in the pre-1994 system of first-past-the-post, you do not need to vote for the “lesser of two evils”, as vote splitting will not allow the party you oppose to be elected.

Imagine a Western Cape where there are only 10 voters and in the last election the DA won 7 votes and the ANC won 3 votes. If in this election, 2 votes move away from the DA to RP, then the DA has 5 votes, the ANC has 3 votes and the RP has 2 votes. However, as the DA and RP will work together to form a provincial government, the ANC will still be kept in opposition.

Furthermore, the most recent polling from the Social Research Foundation (SRF) paints a terrible picture for the ANC in the Western Cape. They are predicted to only obtain 17% of the vote, an 11% drop from 2019. Their usual coalition partners, the EFF and the PA, do not fare much better —  obtaining only 10% and 4% respectively.

In the Western Cape, the ANC-led Doomsday Coalition cannot even obtain 1/3 of the vote — a long distance from the 50%+1 required to create a provincial government.

In contrast, the DA is currently polling between 53% in the province and their partners in the Multi-Party Charter (MPC) share at least another 10% between them. There is no chance of the DA-led, MPC dropping below 50% in the Western Cape.

A vote for the Referendum Party is a vote to keep the DA in government. Our MPPs will never vote with the ANC/EFF and will support the DA’s Premier candidate in the Western Cape Parliament. The quality of the provincial government you have been used to will not change.

However, what will change will be the DA’s priorities. We will hold the DA to account. We will force them to put the Western Cape people who elected them first. And we will ensure that the Premier calls a referendum on Cape Independence.

Bottom line: A vote for RP is a safe vote. A vote for RP is a vote for a DA led Western Cape Government + a referendum on Cape Independence.