OP-ED: We Can't Outrun Reality

We Can’t Outrun Reality

In a fascinating X thread which was subsequently reproduced on Politicsweb, perennial DA strategist Ryan Coetzee made a remarkably honest statement: “Saying “we got the Titanic to sink more slowly” isn’t the point of politics.”

Coetzee, who formed an integral part of the DA’s Government of National Unity (GNU) negotiating team, clinically demonstrated that the only role the GNU now serves is to keep the ANC in power and South Africa out of the clutches of the MK and EFF. There is no unity involved whatsoever, he says, and the ANC continues to implement ANC policy meaning there will be no significant economic growth, and unemployment will remain at a record high. 

DA-leader John Steenhuisen has steadfastly maintained that the DA is only in the GNU to deliver growth and jobs, Coetzee suggests otherwise. “Forget what you see on X. The DA polls every day, and it knows what the voters think”. The DA remains in the GNU because it believes it is deriving a political advantage from doing so, even though it now knows it cannot deliver growth or jobs, and even though it has become protector-in-chief of the very party it was elected to remove. 

As a leading proponent of Cape Independence, this is bittersweet. There is no joy in watching South Africa’s continued demise, and no solace in being able to say, “I told you so”. I truly hope that reality is dawning. People need to start seeing what is there and not what they wished was there. Where we are now is not some tragic yet unexpected turn of events - it was the only possible outcome for anyone willing to objectively assess the data.

Helen Zille once said to me that if South Africa continued to vote the way it has, then Cape Independence may well become the only solution. Well, we are there and the Mayorship of Jo’burg isn’t going to change that reality. To the contrary, it is a sign of denialism and desperation. 

South Africa’s ideological divide

There are two broad political camps in South Africa, the African Nationalists and the Economic Pragmatists. The African Nationalists are driven by ideology and identity politics which they pursue regardless of outcome. For them, delivering the ‘National Democratic Revolution’ is more important than growth, unemployment, safety, and non-racialism. For the Economic Pragmatists, the outcomes are more important than the ideology, and policy is formed and pursued in order to deliver growth, unemployment, safety and non-racialism.

A reality that many seem happy to ignore is that the level of support for each camp has remained virtually unchanged for the entire 31 year period of democratic rule. The African Nationalists (simplistically defined as the ANC and its two main breakaway parties the EFF and MK) collectively secured 63% of the vote in 1994, peaked at 70% in 2004, and have gradually regressed securing 64% in 2024. Any objective observer can understand this trend and its significance. Those who don’t, have chosen not to.

For as far into the future as we can imagine, the Economic Pragmatists will never hold power in South Africa - the data makes this emphatically clear. Instead, the African Nationalists will continue to hold power and will use that power to destroy South Africa by placing ideology above outcome - the data also makes this emphatically clear. This leaves only two choices for economically pragmatic politicians: adapt to this reality and plan accordingly, or weave a dishonest political narrative and disguise it from voters.

Selling political snake-oil

For some time now, the DA have opted for the latter. They have become sellers of political snake-oil. First it was the Multi-Party Charter (MPC), then it was the GNU, and very soon it will be the logical fallacy of the ‘Largest Political Party’.

From its very inception, the MPC was doomed to failure. If we knew that the African Nationalists were going to get around 65% of the vote (and we did), then the Economic Pragmatists in the MPC could never get 50%. The MPC was designed to deceive voters in order to secure votes. In case you missed the significance of the earlier quote, let me quote Ryan Coeztee again, “The DA polls every day”. It knew and it sold the lie anyway. Snake-oil. 

I will never forget attending a dinner of senior business leaders shortly before the 2024 elections. Gayton McKenzie delivered a one-hour monologue enthusing about how the Multi-Party Charter (MPC) was going to remove the ANC only to publicly concede within 60 seconds that it was doomed to failure when I confronted him with the polling data. “I’m in it for the power”, was McKenzie’s exact justification. Snake-oil.

Next up was the GNU. There is nothing I can add to Coetzee’s revelations, he has openly conceded that the DA are keeping the ANC and their policies in power, that they know that they cannot deliver growth or jobs, and that they remain because their polling tells them that they gain an advantage by doing so. Snake-oil.

As soon as the 2026 Local Government Elections are out of the way, the DA will move into full swing with its ‘Largest Political Party’ message. Spurred on by polling which suggests that DA is closing the gap on the ANC, and ignoring the accompanying disclaimer about undecided voters likely voting ANC, the DA will set about convincing the electorate that if the DA were to be the largest party in any future GNU, then it would be the DA forcing through its policies and not the ANC. This is a logical fallacy and not true. The DA already knows this, but like with the MPC, they will sell it anyway with the conviction of a Nigerian Television Evangelist. Snake-oil.

How do we know? Because we have the data. Unless something extraordinary happens before then, in 2029, just like in every other election since 1994, roughly 65% of voters will again vote for African Nationalists. The very same polls which the DA are using to tee up their ‘largest party’ fallacy also show the African Nationalists still at well over 60%.

Self-determination the solution

It is important to understand the underlying dynamics of the South African political landscape. The Economic Pragmatists are slowly coalescing around the DA giving the appearance of progress, whilst the African Nationalist vote is splintering away from the ANC and fragmenting. The overall voting patterns however remain unchanged and the African Nationalists are radicalising. The notion that South African voters are slowly becoming Economic Pragmatists has no basis whatsoever in fact.

In the unlikely event that the DA does manage to overtake the ANC as the largest political party, it won’t make one jot of difference anyway. The ANC will remain the power broker in government. The DA can either agree to the terms set by the ANC, or refuse and force it into the arms of the MK and EFF. In other words, precisely the same situation they are now in and where the DA cannot deliver growth or jobs. The ANC has a choice of coalition partners, the DA does not. Why? Because 65% of South African voters perpetually vote for African Nationalism!

For Economic Pragmatists, there is only one solution and the longer they avoid reality, the harder it becomes to deliver. The right of self-determination exists to ensure that minorities (in this case an ideological minority) do not become trapped in a situation which they cannot vote themselves out of, and where they are not governed according to their democratic will. Self-determination is not some dirty word, it is a fundamental human right which is waiting to be claimed.

In the Western Cape, where for 31 years voters have voted for economic pragmatism, the practical implications are as obvious as the day is long. Cape Independence will put the Economic Pragmatists in charge. Without independence, the African Nationalists will remain in control.

It was extremely apt then that Coetzee elected to use the symbolism of the Titanic to define South Africa’s future. This has habitually been the symbolism used by the Cape Independence movement. South Africa as the sinking ship, Cape Independence as the welcome lifeboat. As Coetzee himself said, “Getting the Titanic to sink less slowly” is not the solution.

This article was first published by Politicsweb: https://www.referendumparty.org/news/op-ed-we-cant-outrun-reality